What will the policy making process and public policy agenda look like in five years time (2014)?
What will the policy making process and public policy agenda look like in five years time (2014)?
This was the focus question for the scenario planning exercise we undertook as part of the Policy Forum seminar in January. The attached document (below) provides an overview of the exercise and a summary of the scenario narratives that were developed by participants.
For those of you that were there – and those of you that were not – do you have anything further to add to each of the narratives? in particular, what implications does each of the scenarios have for our policy work?
Here are some guiding questions for you to think through:
• What implications do the scenarios have for how and where policy decisions are made? Where will decision-making powers lie and what are the routes of influence? Will the changes enhance or diminish your ability to influence the policy process?
• How might the public policy agenda change under each of the scenarios? To what extent will these changes fall in or out of line with your organisation’s own policy agenda?
• What impact will the scenarios have on your users, members or beneficiaries? What implications will this have for your policy agenda? Might your priorities change? Might your positions change?
• How might the scenarios impact on your organisation’s resources and capacity to undertake policy/influencing work?
Please add your comments and response by replying to this discussion.
All the best,
Rachael
This was the focus question for the scenario planning exercise we undertook as part of the Policy Forum seminar in January. The attached document (below) provides an overview of the exercise and a summary of the scenario narratives that were developed by participants.
For those of you that were there – and those of you that were not – do you have anything further to add to each of the narratives? in particular, what implications does each of the scenarios have for our policy work?
Here are some guiding questions for you to think through:
• What implications do the scenarios have for how and where policy decisions are made? Where will decision-making powers lie and what are the routes of influence? Will the changes enhance or diminish your ability to influence the policy process?
• How might the public policy agenda change under each of the scenarios? To what extent will these changes fall in or out of line with your organisation’s own policy agenda?
• What impact will the scenarios have on your users, members or beneficiaries? What implications will this have for your policy agenda? Might your priorities change? Might your positions change?
• How might the scenarios impact on your organisation’s resources and capacity to undertake policy/influencing work?
Please add your comments and response by replying to this discussion.
All the best,
Rachael
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Permalink Reply by Kathryn on
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As this event, and the whole 'Analysing the External Environment' group shows, considering what's happening externallly, how trends and forces (drivers) might shape the future of your organisation is really important. As Rachael says, understanding the external environment is an essential component of making policies that are effective and sustainable. It can be overwhelming however. The language: 'strategic analysis', 'external environment', 'drivers' is a bit technical; the range of issues that can affect the VCS is huge. Where to start?
Well NCVO Third Sector Foresight are holding a day of insight and interaction on 19 May with our Exchange for the Future 2009. The morning will have practical sessions to develop your strategic insight skills, while the afternoon will give you space and time to think through trends and issues such as 'The Future of news' and their implications for you.
If you'd like to find out more, have a look at this page: www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/exchange2009 or give me a shout.
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Permalink Reply by Natalie Williams on -
Newspaper headlines for 2014
Myself and Caroline from Third Sector Foresight held a workshop at NCVO’s Campaigning Conference earlier this month where we asked participants to create some newspaper headlines for each of the four scenarios from the Policy Forum seminar that Rachel's written about above. Participants created headlines for each year leading up to 2014. Newspaper headlines can be a really useful way of thinking through the implications of the scenarios for the VCS and imagining what the most striking features of these future worlds might be so I thought I'd share them and see if anyone wants to add any others? Don't just limit yourself to Third Sector magazine, the group particularly had a lot of fun thinking up some tabloid headings!
Scenario 1: New-Old Labour
(short, shallow recession, Labour government)
2010
“Brown Bounces Back” (The Guardian)
“God Help Us – another five years” (The Sun)
2011
“Brown Boots Elder Care” (The Guardian)
“City Scuppers Spending Plans” (The Sun)
2012
“Eastenders finally have say in Olympic legacy” (The Guardian)
“What a waste of money” (The Sun)
2013
“Unions flex muscles as membership doubles” (The Guardian)
“Nation mourns our greatest PM” (The Sun)
2014
“Brown takes Labour back to roots” (The Guardian)
“The Sun – We told you so” (The Sun)
Scenario 2: Looking for a Silver Lining
(long-deep recession, Labour government)
2010
“Labour limps through”
2011
“Unemployed should help themselves”
2012
“Shock BNP by-election win”
“British public embraces Olympic Spirit”
2013
“BNP MP arrested: turned in by own constituents”
2014
“New government department of the third sector: £400bn budget mooted”
Scenario 3: Back to Business
(short, shallow recession, Conservative government)
2010
“Cameron offers new vision of cleaner communities”
2011
“Same old Bull ***t”
2012
“Olympic Meltdown”
2013
“Security clampdown: lobbyists banned from Westminster”
2014
“…..”
Scenario 4: Double-whammy
(long, deep recession, Conservative government)
2010
“Brown gets the boot”
2011
“Unemployment hits £3m”
2012
“Olympic Gold distracts from rapid rise in child poverty”
2013
“Charity ends at home”
2014
“The End is Nigh”
Key issues for discussion
We then discussed the impact the scenarios might have on campaiging and the VCS in general and below are some of the main issues and questions that emerged as a result. For those of you who were there, please feel free to continue your discussions here and those who weren't, have a read of the scenarios and start debating!
What do you think the impact of a short, sharp or long, deep recession might be on your organisation? Or what would be the implications of another Labour Government or a new Conservative one on your organisation or the sector?
- If we end up with a government that is opposed to campaigning at a time when there is greater need to campaign for change, how will the sector reconcile these conflicting forces?
- If there is a long recession, will your organisation have to re-think your campaigning priorities as new problems and issues emerge? Will VCS issues fall off the agenda?
- All scenarios suggest that disparities and inequality may widen. What implications will this have for campaigning?
- What impact may the recession have on volunteering and activism? Both are vital resources to the sector.
- All scenarios suggest greater trends towards localisation. What impact will this have on campaigning, in particular on UK-wide or national campaigning organisations? Will campaigning targets be more localised? Will campaigning issues be more localised?
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